Wednesday, August 26, 2009

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marcus Banks 0.2 0.3 0.5 3 5.8 4.4
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT
Quincy Douby 0.4 0.6 1 4.9 6.4 5.6
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Patick O'Bryant 0.5 2 2.5 4.8 20.6 12.8
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Sonny Weems 0 0.3 0.3 0 8.2 4.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5[/CODE]

As you can see above I have taken stats from last season for all the players on the Raptors this season. I took last season stats, so some stats (Most notable Bench warmers) may look better then what they really show. As for DeRozan, I thought about taking stats from Carter in his rookie season, but then realized that Carters stats were fluctuated compared to what DeRozans may look like. So I left those stats to be determined.

I am assuming everyone knows what ORB, DRB and TRB are, so I will give you guys a brief description of the % stats.

[I]Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor. [/I]

If you would like to check out the formulas to calculate these percentages you can do so at [URL="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"]This Link.[/URL]

For debate sake, I will begin by looking at the starting line-up with Wright in it as starting shooting guard.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9 [/CODE]

When we look at those stats, it's quite palpable that our starting line-up is going to be weak at rebounding. Though here's what I expect:

Bosh will continue to dominate the team in rebounding and hopefully help build on the conception of team rebounding. Now the dimension of the starting line-up next season will be changing incredibly. We are losing Marion (Who was an elite rebounder) and Parker who was a good rebounder for the SG position. Marion last season average 8.3 RPG and had a TRB% of 13.8. Some may dispute that this took off some of the pressure of Bargnani in the second half of the season. Which we all know Bargnani really came out of his shell then. With the loss of Marion, and the addition of Turkoglu, rebounding in the starting line-up has dropped drastically, and that line-up may be one of the most terrible rebounding line-ups in the league.

For it to gain any type of success Turkoglu, Bargnani and Wright will all have to improve severely on their rebounding skills. Though, substituting DeRozan in for Wright in the starting line-up may have a change, it would be small to say the least. Turk will have to adapt to getting after it on the boards, well Bargnani will have to become more aggressive. If not, it could because an all out slaughter night in and night out. I do believe Wright can improve more than the rest. Here's why:

Last season Wright played with a great squad in Dallas. He was a lock down defender, and played beside Jason Kidd and Josh Howard, who are both above average rebounders in their positions.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Josh Howard 1.1 3.9 5.1 4.1 14 9.1
Jason Kidd 1 5.1 6.2 3.4 16.4 9.9[/CODE]

Look at those stats, both players grabbed together 20% of available rebounds. If we look at Turkoglu and Jose, they manage to grab about 13% of rebounds. The difference is this season Wright will have more opportunities to grab the rebounds and be belligerent. Especially being the 5th option on offense in the starting line-up he can get after it on offense and defence. Realistically though unless we show good improvement, our starting line-up is going to be in a struggle on the boards.

Next, I will look at the next 6 players (In no particular order) who I feel will be competing for a realistic role off the bench.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT[/CODE]

First I will look at the impact of Jarret Jack and his stint off the bench. I do not seehim playing much other then PG. I see Calderon's minutes dropping some and Jack coming off the bench having the biggest impact. But since this article is on rebounding, I will stay on topic. Jarret Jack is an upgrade in that sense over Calderon off the bench. He is more athletic, but brings different tangibles to the floor. He brings a different pace, which is a quick up tempo style. This style will presumably take away rebound from certain players. It will give odd man rushes so the opportunity to rebound the ball might drop, but not significantly for players. Rebounding wise though I see a drop for Jack this season because our Bench has some above average rebounders.

Next, DeRozan and Belinelli. Belinelli is a bad rebounder. But that is not what Triano will be calling upon him to do. Belinelli will presume an Eddie House type role off the bench if he proves to be consistent, which we are all hoping for. Well on the other hand we have DeRozan. DeRozan will run the floor with Jack, and crash the boards if he plays anything like he did in university. If we compared his stats to Carter in his first year, he would be one of our top rebounders next season. Though I feel obligated not to because Carter was in a different situation, is a different player and I frankly don't take too much out of player comparisons. DeRozan will have opportunities for put backs and have the athletic edge over some players. I can see DeRozan being the second best offensive rebounder behind Bosh next season, if he uses his athleticism to his advantage.

Amir Johnson is an fascinating player. Many believe he will bring it this season, and if he does and gets minutes expect his rebounding numbers to be through the roof. Really though. He already has a 15.1 % TRB and that's with minimum minutes and opportunities. Truth is, if he plays anything near what he is capable of expect him to be a long term fix in Toronto. Though right now Evans is our best rebounder off the bench, I just don't know how much he has left in him. He bring in intimidation and is physical, he is slowly losing his edge. Johnson will give him a hard run for minutes and I will expect competitive practises. Evans really knows how to position himself and rebound though. So it may be hard not to utilize him next season, especially if we are struggling early on, which I expect we will be. Rasho, will be a nice piece off the bench for Bargnani. His rebounding number dropped notably last season compared to his season with the Raptors. That was mainly because his role malformed. I expect them to come up some, back to his time with the Raptors. He is a good rebounder and defender which is why it would be hard not to play him.

Overall, it is safe to say our starting line-up will struggle on the boards and our second unit will bring in the edge off the bench. It does become significant though that our starters will be getting a lot of minutes, and not be able to rebound that great. There is only so much the bench can do. If players like Turk, Bargnani and Wright don't perk up this season it there could be some long nights. Though I am not laying the season on rebounding, I am saying that rebounding will become one of the main factors which will determine if we are contenders or pretenders.

Cheers,
Dustin

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Johnson and Johnson


Wilful Blindness or pure potential? Disregarding everything you know now about Johnson one may continue to only see highlights of Johnson. For this reason, I would like to thank YouTube. YouTube has made people become wilfully blind. It has completely revolutionized the way an average fan see’s a player. You see what happens is, we, as fanatics do not have the networking available to do a full scouting report on players so we reside to highlights we see on YouTube. In the case of Amir Johnson, this has proven quite true. What people don’t know is that Amir Johnson’s main struggle isn’t not enough playing time or chances. His main struggle is his ability to be consistent and persevere.


Then people enquire why Johnson started 24 games last season. And that’s an easy answer. McDyess got traded early in the season and then fell to injury. What people don’t know is that when McDyess came back he said he would come off the bench behind Johnson, but I guess management didn’t have the same idea. After Johnson plays off the bench you virtually see no production from him. Then over time he loses minutes, and when all was said and done he was traded to Milwaukee. Regardless, inconsistency still screamed his name in the 4 seasons he’s been in the league. (Though I wouldn’t hold the first 2 seasons enormously against him)


His potential is through the roof, but is he willing to train to show what he’s worth. I mean we could see a player who rides the bench all season behind Evans and Rasho. Or we could see a player showing tons of fight and hard work, something this team will need to give them a boost when they are down. Johnson role will be primary energy, defence, and making it work on offence. As for the fans, I will leave you to decide whether or not you guys have been wilfully blind to do the media misconstruing things, or if you truly see pure potential in Johnson.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Log Jam - The Wright way


Being a journeyman your whole career always makes a fan wonder why? Why do teams keep trading him? Why aren't we trying to get him? And the most common question is why did we end up with him? Well all in all this can be said about the Toronto Raptors and their acquisition of Antoine Wright from the Dallas Mavericks. He has been traded, but not the main part of the trades. He has been pushed to exceed limits and is always playing with something more than a chip on his shoulder. It should be to no avail that most Raptor fans should make the assumption he will not get valuable minutes, but being vulnerable is one thing and being oblivious is another.


Now we all know that Triano has stated that DeRozan will be our starting shooting guard, which I think everyone can consensually agree with. It gives DeRozan the morale and encouragement he needs to become prolific in the league. Did I mention he can jump really high? Oppose to that his defence isn't exactly all their, something that will be pressed hard on him in the offseason. This is where Wright becomes effective. Some people tend to get caught up in the rotation, and disregard that this is not like a hockey shift. Guaranteed 2-3 starters will be on the game at all times. Wright, will close out quarters, and be primarily used as a main defender.


Rick Carlisle has been stated saying that Wright was the best defender on the squad. Now what makes this more significant is he had to guard the top players in the association night in night out. Kobe, Lebron, Wade are players he guarded each game. It was an exhibition out there for him. The Mavericks team did have 50 wins and made it to the playoffs. Now to use Wright properly is where Triano may or may go wrong. If Triano puts him in the game as one of the top 2 or 3 options as a scorer he would be going wrong. He needs to use him sufficiently and make sure he is not depended to be a scorer on the floor at all times. Triano must also plays chimes in his ears all season long about defence. Keep him consistent and motivated to make the necessary stops. Unless of course, anyone wants to see Turk or DeRozan get lit up for 81 anytime soon. It will be Wrights job to finish the games out on defence, and Jack will presumably be in the game when we need to score. DeRozan may be able to jump, really high, but with all the transactions made after the draft it's hard to put DeRozan in positions like that with so many other options.


With enough emphasis, Wright is strong, rugged player. He has been known for saying that if he wasn't going to be a pro basketball player, he was bound to be a pro football player. That quote there talks a lot about his character and his drive. He may not be a Ben Wallace or Bruce Bowen type player, but for now he is our best option and if Triano utilizes him correctly, he may help make this teams defence a momentous factor that helps produce victories. Let's not take the wrong way, but go the Wright way.


Cheers,

Dustin

Friday, July 31, 2009

Why the Raptors should sign Big Daddy Pops and not Carlos Chuckfino.


Before you go on to read this understand that I am a fan of Carlos, and do believe Carlos is a better overall player. But I will be looking at how Mensa Bonsu will make more sense to be on this roster then Carlos next season. Two weeks ago, I was on the Delfino bandwagon back to Toronto, but after many complications and roster changes, it just makes more sense for the team and the MLSE to go after Pops.


Ok first, let's examine Carlos for what he brings to this Raptors squad. Well he brings a jump shot, inconsistently of course, but he has a jump shot. He's a prime defender, no Bruce Bowen, but he can keep in front of his man, force the turnover and makes smart plays. The biggest asset he brings to the squad would have to be his rebounding skills. He is a SG who gets after it on the boards. Something every team needs and wants. So that all looks good on paper until you read the fine print of the contract:


Carlos will bring everything above every second game. He may bring to you a wild array of shot selection, or he may get frustrated with his lack of playing time if you don't utilize him. So keep him happy, and since Russian and Europeans teams want him we have a price tag of 5 million plus per year.


Ok, I'm sorry but AP left for a bit more than 2 mil a year and is everything you are with consistency and a way better jump shot. The price tag is as big as a turn off as walking in on your parents in bed. All joke aside. Let's be real here, if Carlos is going to push us up until luxury taxes, why take the chance. If I recall the plan is to keep Bosh here, not overpay players so then we will not be able to afford to keep Bosh.


Alright, so now then I am done breaking Carlos apart, let's looks what we have acquired that fill the voids. Well we have Antoine Wright, someone who everyone is seriously underestimating. He brings it with defence intensity. Last season Rick Carlisle said he was the best defender on the Mavericks squad who won 50 games. He guarded the likes of Kobe and Lebron night in and night out. When we already have a man who defends at that position, signing Delfino for that much doesn't make much sense, right? Well it gets better. We have DeRozan who has a promising future, and we don't want to take the Bargnani approach again and stunt his development. Anyone who hasn't seen him, just do a quick youtube search and he will blow your mind. This kids plays above the rim, and will become a valuable asset. Why stunt his growth. Oh, and another this we have a combo guard, Mr. Jack, who can play minutes at the two, and not to mention we brought in pure shooter in Marco.


So far we have all the holes that Chuckfino fills filled, so this is where Pops comes in. You want defence? You got defence. You want rebounding? You got rebounding. You want intensity? You got it! Pops is that guy who brings it night in and night out, regardless of how he feels. This guy has worked the offseason to fit into the Raptors rotation and has trained himself and his body to play the SF position. That's dedication. He rebound and plays defence at the SF of PF position something we drastically need. We do not need any more combo guards, or inconsistent players. We need a guy who will come in anytime of the game and completely change the tempo of the game. He get's after everything, and yes sure Delfino may be a better players, he doesn't have what this team is missing. We have lots of competition for the starting two position, What we need is that man who comes in brings that spark off the bench and gets after it on the boards. Unless of course, you think that Evan throwing some elbows around or Rasho with his soft lay ups will change the tempo of the game :P .


Personally, I would love to see this lineup in a game to change the tempo completely.


PG - Jack

SG - DeRozan

SF- Wright

PF - Pops

C - Bosh


Did I mention his price tag is closer to one million per year, Now doesn't that make you love Raptors basketball?


Cheers,

Dustin

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Now What? - With Turk official this is my approach.


No more speculation. It's almost as official as it can get. Hedo is going to be the starting SF come opening game next season for the Raptors. The only question is, with limited cap room and options what does BC do? Here is something similar to what I believe he will do...

First and foremost, let's take a look at the money we still possibly have. We have the MLE and BAE. (This is only if the MLSE tells BC he can use the money and put us into luxury tax). So we have about 5.5 Mil to play with the MLE and 2 Mil for the BAE.

First let's look at the MLE. I honestly believe that once we renounce Delfino we will still bring him in. BC really wants this guy in Toronto and was said to be close to having his contract a done deal. So this puts us in a situation to use some of that MLE on him. I think we can get somewhere between 2.5 and 3 Mil a year on him. If the MLSE gives BC the go ahead then I expect this will be the only part of the MLE he will be using. No sense in bringing in a guy just because. We do not want to be too far over in luxury taxes and then kill our future like the Knicks.

After that I expect us to use the Bi-Annual exception (BAE) on Rasho. Now Rasho did have a huge contract, but his value is also diminishing. With a home already in Toronto 2 Mil for the next few season sis probably fine in his books. He wants back here and so does the organization. There will probably be a bonus somewhere down the line but I think Rasho will retire a Raptor.

Next thing that will happen is Humphries is going to get traded. Hump is our biggest piece of bait right now outside of our core. Rumour around is that it will be for a draft pick. Now if that were to happen then we would not use the MLE at all and sign Delfino is a second. BC will try all he can to stay away from putting us into luxury tax.

Now of course we have the Vets minimums we can use. I suggest that we do the following:

1. Sign Jamario Moon to an offer sheet - There is no reason why we don't try. He is restricted, would love to come back to Toronto and the fans would love him back in Toronto. I am sure that if Moon would not be at the top of Miami's to do list.

2. Offer Matt Barnes and/or Dahntay Jones the vet min - This brings us two different styles of games. If we bring in Delfino he will probably get a lot of minute behind Jose at the point. That leaves us with filling the SG and SF void. Our bench is weak, and having the first man off the bench Douby will not cut it. Denver has no intention of bringing back Jones, and Jones will not want to be the 3rd SG off the bench next season. I highly see one of these players being a Raptor next season.

3. Sign Maceo Baston to the vet's min - This guy has already shown us he can play, so let's bring him in as a backup plan. Someone gets hurt, Maceo will play. Someone has an off game, Maceo will play. This guy has lots of chances to get minutes and he has proven to his that he can play.

Here is my fantasy team next season come opening day -

PG - Jose/Delfino/Ukic

SG - DeRozan/Barnes or Jones/Douby

SF - Turk/Moon/Pops

PF - Bosh/Evans/Baston

C - Bargnani/Rasho/POB


Cheers,

Dustin

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

The Raptors rumour mill - 13 UPDATES! (Kleiza the newest Raptor?!)


Well recently there have been a lot of rumours floating around Raptor land. Some of it has some truth but most of it has no mean what so ever. So let's check out what seems real and what seems fake!


1. Raptors aiming to trade Dooling for Humphries - This rumour got started at the famous raptorschat.ca site. You can still check out the thread. The guy said he heard it from a friend who is a taxi driver. He said the taxi driver overheard Colangelo say Doolings name a bunch of times on the phone. He probably was saying to the taxi driver,"stop drooling!" haha


2. Raptors make qualifying offers to Delfino and Pops - Let's clear this up right away. Other teams can still make offers to these players. The Raptors gave them qualifying offers to retain their rights. They can match any offer that is put on the table. We all know BC wants Delfino back, but it is looking like Pops may just come out as a bailout in case some he has up his sleeve doesn't pan out. *cough*Rasho*cough*


3. Bye-Bye Joey - The Raptors did not get offered a qualifying offer. With this being said, unless BC gets desperate it is safe to say Joey Graham will not be a Raptor next season. Him and Charlie V where both drafted the same year, to the same team and now don't receive qualifying offers. There must have been something in the hats.


4. Anthony Parkers Offered A Two Year 10 Mil Dollar Contract From Olympiakos - Looks like AP is gone for good. The team is said they will match any offers made from NBA teams. AP was a great man and a great shooter. It looks like the Raptors are really going to drop from being one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the NBA to a mediocre 3 point shooting team. It is also rumoured that he may be joining the Celtics next season. Very unlikely he will be a Raptor come opening day.http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/60254/20090701/boston_interested_in_anthony_parker/


5. DeRozan to enter dunk competition next season! - Believe it or not the kid is already talking about going in the dunk comp next season in his rookie year. This kid is ballsy and I am loving it right now. He posted on his twitter for any fans out there that have dunk ideas to make a video and put it on youtube for him to see. You can also tweet Pops if you would like to.


6. Raptors show slim intrest in Ariza - According to Ariza's agent BC and co have showed interest in the stud defensive player from L.A. chances are he is going to resign with Lakers, but anything is possible!http://www.pe.com/sports/basketball/lakers/stories/PE_Sports_Local_S_lakers_30.3cd2531.html


7. With Charlie V out of the Picutre the Raptors turn their focus to Linas Kleiza - Kleiza was one of the main free agents that BC approached the eve of free agency. It makes lots of sense. We need a scorer off the bench and Kleiza will provide that. He will also come cheap and we can use the MLE money on him. I think he will be a big factor next season as the first man off the bench if he comes to TO.http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/


8. Lebron and Bosh want to sign with the same team when free agency comes along, I'm betting it's not TO. Could Bargnani be the man down the road? By the looks of things BC has a lot of convincing to do to keep Bosh in town.http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/60196/20090630/source_lebron_bosh_plan_to_play_together/


9. Raptors are interested in Bellinelli according to Doug Smith - Now this would only happen in a trade scenario. This would only happen if Kleiza did not pan out. So let's just assume he will for now.


10. Raptors could generate a sign and trade possibility with David Lee. - Now let's clear this off at the bat. No one has publicly said that this might happen. This is a possibly which Toronto is one of the only teams who could do this. Click the Link and you will understand.http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/15830179


11. Ukics unhappy being in Toronto. According to various sources from Greece, Croatia and the US, Olympiacos has made an offer to Roko Leni Ukic, worth 3,5 million euros for two years. This could be baiting teams on. Wait who I am trying to kid Ukic was stuck with us. He is our main backup for now so I think he will live with it. If not, does anyone really care?http://www.talkbasket.net/news/olympiacos-offers-ukic-a-contract.html


12. Delfino is almost certainly a raptor as well! - Well that's good news for Raps fan. If anyone remembers Delfino he was an all around stud; this guy could get to the rim, play Defence and nail the 3. I expect to see a lot of him playing the 1 and the 2 this season.http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/


13. BC want Turk!...Not - Some reports came out today saying that the Raptors are preparing to offer Turk 60 Million for 5 years. Mind you how ridiculous that sound people still believed it. So here I will clear it up for all you believers. The Oregon paper was saying that the Raptors are a team that COULD make that type of offer to Turk. Not that they are planning to. In other words if they terminated all the contracts they could and used the early bird terms then they could sign Turk for that much. But it it not going to happen unless BC get's desperate. http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/07/turkoglu_coming_to_portland_fo.htmlWell


I hope this clears things up for Raptor fans, as it did for me.


Cheers,

Dustin

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

The Raptors rumour mill - Don't miss out! (AP gone for good)

Well recently there have been a lot of rumours floating around Raptor land. Some of it has some truth but most of it has no mean what so ever. So let's check out what seems real and what seems fake!

1. Raptors aiming to trade Dooling for Humphries - This rumour got started at the famous raptorschat.ca site. You can still check out the thread. The guy said he heard it from a friend who is a taxi driver. He said the taxi driver overheard Colangelo say Doolings name a bunch of times on the phone. He probably was saying to the taxi driver,"stop drooling!" haha

2. Raptors make qualifying offers to Delfino and Pops - Let's clear this up right away. Other teams can still make offers to these players. The Raptors gave them qualifying offers to retain their rights. They can match any offer that is put on the table. We all know BC wants Delfino back, but it is looking like Pops may just come out as a bailout in case some he has up his sleeve doesn't pan out. *cough*Rasho*cough*

3. Bye-Bye Joey - The Raptors did not get offered a qualifying offer. With this being said, unless BC gets desperate it is safe to say Joey Graham will not be a Raptor next season. Him and Charlie V where both drafted the same year, to the same team and now don't receive qualifying offers. There must have been something in the hats.

4. Anthony Parkers Offered A Two Year 10 Mil Dollar Contract From Olympiakos - Looks like AP is gone for good. The team is said they will match any offers made from NBA teams. AP was a great man and a great shooter. It looks like the Raptors are really going to drop from being one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the NBA to a mediocre 3 point shooting team.

5. DeRozan to enter dunk competition next season! - Believe it or not the kid is already talking about going in the dunk comp next season in his rookie year. This kid is ballsy and I am loving it right now. He posted on his twitter for any fans out there that have dunk ideas to make a video and put it on youtube for him to see.

6. Raptors show slim intrest in Ariza - According to Ariza's agent BC and co have showed interest in the stud defensive player from L.A. chances are he is going to resign with Lakers, but anything is possible!

Well I hope this clears things up for Raptor fans, as it did for me.